ecosophia | Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 31

The corporate media, demonstrating once again that it has the attention span and cognitive capacity of a hyperactive squirrel on bad acid, has now pivoted away from Covid and is finding a new set of temporary obsessions. Despite this, the semi-open posts I've hosted here on the Covid-19 narrative, the inadequately tested experimental drugs for it, and the whole cascading mess surrounding them have continued to field a steady stream of comments, so I'm opening yet another space for discussion. The rules are the same as before:

1. If you plan on parroting the party line of the medical industry and its paid shills, please go away. This is a place for people to talk openly, honestly, and freely about their concerns that the party line in question is dangerously flawed and that actions being pushed by the medical industry et al. are causing injury and death. It is not a place for you to dismiss those concerns. Anyone who wants to hear the official story and the arguments in favor of it can find those on hundreds of thousands of websites.

2. If you plan on insisting that the current situation is the result of a deliberate plot by some villainous group of people or other, please go away. There are tens of thousands of websites currently rehashing various conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 outbreak and the vaccines. This is not one of them. What we're exploring is the likelihood that what's going on is the product of the same arrogance, incompetence, and corruption that the medical industry and its tame politicians have displayed so abundantly in recent decades. That possibility deserves a space of its own for discussion, and that's what we're doing here.

3. If you plan on using rent-a-troll derailing or disruption tactics, please go away. I'm quite familiar with the standard tactics used by troll farms to disrupt online forums, and am ready, willing, and able -- and in fact quite eager -- to ban people permanently for engaging in them here. Oh, and I also lurk on other Covid-19 vaccine skeptic blogs, so I'm likely to notice when the same posts are showing up on more than one venue.

4. If you don't believe in treating people with common courtesy, please go away. I have, and enforce, a strict courtesy policy on my blogs and online forums, and this is no exception. The sort of schoolyard bullying that takes place on so many other internet forums will get you deleted and banned here. No, I don't care if you disagree with that: my journal, my rules.

With that said, as government officials scramble around like a cat trying to bury its droppings on a vinyl floor, and the unvaccinated wonder why so many vaccinated people have oddly puffy faces these days, the floor is open for discussion.

Flat | Top-Level Comments Only

I was discussing last week the stats (from Scotland) for the single dosers seemed to give an improvement with respect to both no dosers and two dosers and inspired by https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/03/04/russia-distracts-uk-gov-reveal-vaccinated-more-likely-to-die-covid/ I have rerun the numbers for also the single dosers to get the following percentage effectiveness against death (with respect to unvaccinated):

Age | 1 | 2 | 3 doses
--------------------------------------
18-29 | 29 | -80 | 43
30-39 | -19 | -11 | 70
40-49 | -103 | -65 | 59
50-59 | -125 | -70 | 66
60-69 | -109 | -140 | 61
70-79 | -91 | -209 | 66
>80 | -103 | -222 | 37

The death rates per 100,000 increase exponentially from 0.4 in the 18-29 range to 612 for > 80 (2 doses).

I think these numbers show broadly that for Omicron the long-term effectiveness for 1 dose is -100% and for 2 doses is -200%. I assume still some effect of the recently vaccinated in the younger age ranges---the numbers are at any rate quite small there for all doses and thus the uncertainty is large.

If this problem is as linear as I think it could be, I expect the 3 doses to settle at some -300% after some months.

This is consistent with what Radagast was telling us months ago and graphed expertly here: https://www.rintrah.nl/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/1graph.jpg

"In the blue scenario, the immune response to this virus is effective, but it dissipates over time and so you need to receive continual boosters every six months or so, to remind your immune system to be on the lookout for this virus.

In the red scenario, the changes that occur to this virus in the context of a massively vaccinated population lead to a situation where the immune response that your body is taught to develop causes your immune system to be prepared in an inadequate manner. Your body is defending the Maginot line and the virus shows up through Belgium. You’ve seen different technical terms thrown around, like antibody dependent enhancement, original antigenic sin and soforth, but they all boil down to this basic idea: An immune system prepared for the wrong situation is ultimately worse off than an unprepared immune system."

"Your body is defending the Maginot line and the virus shows up through Belgium."

That's the best analogy for OAS I've heard yet. I'm going to use that one!

Since the negative efficacy has started showing up in the data, I've been thinking we're in the early phases of a "vaccine treadmill" where the long term effects of the vaccines go increasingly negative while each booster continues to provide a temporary but increasingly smaller benefit. Eventually, even the recently boosted at the peak of their protection would be worse off than the unvaccinated. We're not there yet, but I think there's a good chance we will be there by next winter, and that's not even considering how the continuing evolution of the virus in highly vaccinated populations affects things.

OP here.

It is following the behavior of heroin addiction. The highs get lower with each hit and the lows get lower until you need constant hits to even function.

The fourth hit is already showing lower highs in Israel: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.15.22270948v1

Like a recovering addict, I am hoping that a period of cold turkey recovers the immune system with limited memory of the old spike protein so it can tackle new variants at some equivalence to those who stay away from drugs.

Thanks for this, anonymous.

UK now essentially totally open and unmasked with BA.2 dominating infections. This is more vaccine antibody resistant than BA.1.

Some info. here:
https://mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1501250077305749506

Overall infections are on the rise again as are hospitalisations. Part of the explanation given here is falling protection of boosters in the elderly. We are now at the 3-4 month mark - if we start seeing deep negative effectiveness as you suggest then it won't be easy to hide the consequences for long.
:-/

OP here.

In the news today you will see the NHS pushing improved health for the population: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/08/sajid-javid-families-help-nhs-pushing-loved-ones-improve-health

Imagine if they had pushed that 2 years ago in March 2020!

Can't disagree.

Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 31

Vaccine Effectiveness Calcs

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